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It’s rare when the Street gets excited about bonds. But after last week’s wink and nod from Jerome Powell that the pause on rates might also mean the Fed is done for the cycle, all classes of bonds ripped higher in reaction. Calls from trading desks around the world to “lock in rates” were resonating […]
The tried-and-true Wall Street maxim of he or she is “talking their book” couldn’t be more accurate or timely to describe what is being spewed from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. She is, apparently, in full denial of the stress being placed on the bond market due to escalating debt issuance and elevating yields from lack […]
Last Tuesday’s release of September retail sales showed a monthly increase of 0.7% and above the 0.3% consensus following an upwardly revised 0.8% increase, from 0.6% in August. Excluding autos, retail sales were higher by 0.6% month over month, compared to a forecast of just 0.2%. Excluding gasoline, retail sales were still higher by 0.7%, […]
Prior to Hamas’s invasion of Israel, the stock market was pretty strongly teed up for a seasonal year-end rally. There has been lower-trending economic data to offset the still-stubbornly inflationary data that keeps the bond market in check. The dollar continues to trade higher, attracting foreign capital from around the world. And to the surprise […]
The massive surprise attack on Israel by Hamas over the weekend adds to an already fluid set of potentially destabilizing scenarios around the globe that only makes investing in U.S.-based assets that much more attractive. This is an unprecedented attack that will result in a major escalation that has regional implications, beginning with how nations […]
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For Wall Street and investors alike, it was good riddance to the month of September, where broad selling pressure weighed on both stocks and bonds. It was a time to be long oil and oil-related stocks, floating rate debt and the dollar. Not much else was working. Hopefully, October and the ushering in of third-quarter […]
As far as the Fed is concerned, interest rates will be higher for considerably longer than both the stock and bond markets were banking on. The policy statement accompanying the rate decision laid out a path where the Fed is not expecting to reduce rates in 2024, essentially modifying in a negative manner the policy […]
Not much has changed in the past month to convince the markets that the Fed is completely done with the business of raising rates. This past week’s inflation and retail sales data, chip-sector theatrics and a host of industry conferences did little to change that. In fact, all it did was to raise the level […]
These past five weeks have been characterized as a normal period of consolidation following a strong reversal of the narrative during the last week of August. The softer economic data fueling the bullish pivot has essentially taken the chance of a Fed interest rate hike at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting off […]
Bullish investors were rewarded last week with a winning streak of economic data points coupled with a move higher for the majority of equities and bond prices. One could sense a huge sense of relief in how the data crossed the tape one good news report after another that fed the narrative of a definite […]
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