Investing Strategies & Updates
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Current Rally Could Carry into February
Don’t look now, but the rally that has taken the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq to new lifetime highs has the look and feel of extending its run into mid-February. Liquidity from the Fed boosting its balance sheet, the signing of the Phase One deal and the passage of the USMCA deal this past week is […]
China’s Stock Market is a Terminal Short
One of the most important identifiers of a country’s economic health is its current account balance as a percent gross domestic product (GDP). According to data from a great source, Trading Economics, “The current account balance as a percent of GDP provides an indication on the level of international competitiveness of a country.” Usually, countries […]
Where to Find Assets for Maximum Income in 2020
Among the most cited investment objectives highlighted within various financial surveys is the desire to generate yield and income from invested capital. For the past 10 years, yields on traditional asset classes have been dismal, not even keeping up with inflation and taxes. Rates on certificates of deposit (CDs), money markets, Treasuries, Government National Mortgage […]
Industrial Stocks Likely Will Lead in 2020
As 2019 comes to a close, all manner of predictions regarding what to expect in 2020 are making headlines. From interest rates, to sectors, to price targets for gold, oil, currencies and stocks, fortunes and reputations will be won and lost on such bold calls for the year ahead. In keeping with this tradition, I […]
2020 Trade – Long European Banks?
In December 2011, shortly after he became the new chief of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi opened the floodgates and offered unlimited amounts of euros to banks in three-year loans at 1% interest, with the intention that they would lend that money to businesses and spur growth. The Basel Committee (which sets global […]
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Two ‘W’ Dividend Stocks Set to Vault Higher
This past month, one well-respected banking/brokerage firm after another is talking up the “great rotation” occurring within the stock market. Evidence of money flowing from growth and defensive sectors into value and cyclical sectors is becoming more evident, so there is no doubt which stocks are showing the mojo on any given day. Since a […]
Time Winding Down to the Tariff Deadline
Following a record-breaking Black Friday through Cyber Monday shopping spree by U.S. consumers, it will take a major chain of negative events to undue the strong undercurrent of the year-end bullish sentiment. After all, the consumer has been the driver for the domestic economy in 2019 because interest rates are low, the unemployment rate is […]
China’s Bad Behavior and the Elusive ‘Phase One’ Deal
Investors are bidding the U.S. stock market averages to new all-time highs amid ongoing sentiment that a trade deal with China is imminent. However, the precise time when a pact will be reached is anyone’s guess. The news media keeps reporting that the “final touches” are being worked on and that it’s all but a […]
Investors Betting Heavily On Earnings Rebound in First Half of 2020
It is interesting that all the three major averages are hitting all-time highs following three straight quarters of declining earnings growth for the S&P 500. The latest estimates from FactSet show that the fourth quarter also will produce negative earnings growth for the S&P 500 — forecasts have been slashed to -1.4% from 2.3%. The […]
Steepening Yield Curve is Bullish for Mortgage REITs
In just the past month, the bond market’s yield curve has righted itself in a big way. As the inverted yield curve had compressed margins to nothing for those entities that borrow short and lend or invest long, profit margins evaporated. In the span of two months, the yield curve has steepened, and spreads have […]
