Investing Strategies & Updates
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Offsetting Currents Leave Market in Flux as Bond Yields Rise
The investing landscape is about as mixed and garbled as one could imagine, with all the conflicting data showing a lot of fragmentation within several sectors of the economy amid tightening monetary policy, and a stock market that is demonstrating resilience against seemingly mounting odds. The bears point to an inverted yield curve, a hot […]
Traders are Betting the Fed Will Raise the Overnight Rate to 6.0%
By the time this column is emailed out to all my readers, the pivotal Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will have crossed the tape Tuesday morning. It will either confirm the fears in the bond market that inflation is sticky or provide a basis for buyers to resume buying into growth stocks. Friday’s session was […]
Maybe No Soft or Hard Landing for Economy as Job Market Strengthens
Bond and equity markets are in a much better place than how they ended 2022, with further evidence of slowing inflation providing the bullish catalyst. Aside from what is an impressive labor market that is adding more jobs than forecast, data on manufacturing, factory orders, housing, retail and productivity are all trending lower — which […]
Market Weighs Big Debate Over Outlook for S&P Earnings
After a grand start for the stock market this month, there is so much that remains unanswered amid mixed economic data and a fourth-quarter reporting period that is drawing investors who apparently like the soft-landing narrative back to the market. This narrative has gained steam in light of China’s reopening and the sharp decline in […]
Drum Roll of Earnings Season Getting Loud This Week
The first two weeks of January were up and away for all 11 market sectors fueled by the grand reopening of China, a rally in bonds, a selloff in the dollar and crude oil catching a fresh bid. The third week of January had the market giving back most of the gains, except for Friday’s […]
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Key Developments are Shaping Bullish Sentiment
Halfway through the month of January, the market landscape is much more constructive, even though the last half of December saw a flood of selling pressure that was a huge disappointment to what was a down year for the major averages. 2023 is off to a strong start, with the S&P higher by 4.15% as […]
Inflation Might Already be at the Fed’s Target Rate
Princeton economics professor and former Vice Chairman of the Fed, Alan Blinder, weighed in on the current rate of inflation. Last Friday, he wrote in the Wall Street Journal that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate has been an “alarming 7.1%.” “But the U.S. economy got there by averaging an appalling 10.6% annualized inflation […]
Fed Pivots When Interest Rates Exceed Inflation
There is so much noise and confusion about when the market is going to vault out of its primary bear trend with purpose and begin the next leg of the secular bull market — which is still very much intact. Looking at the 30-year chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the yellow line represents […]
The $31 Trillion Elephant in the Fed’s Room
So much of the Fed’s narrative surrounding inflation is focused on upward pressure on wages and the cost of professional services. This was, once again, reflected in last Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) — the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator. What is never brought up at the post-Federal Open Market Committee press […]
Too-Hawkish Fed Stoking Recession Fears
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a downbeat outlook for investors at the most recent press conference after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. “We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over […]
