Investing Strategies & Updates
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Lots of Blame to Go Around for Banking Turmoil
Yields on Treasuries have nosedived in a full-scale rebuke of Fed Chair Jerome Powell claiming that rate cuts in 2023 were not a consideration. The quarter-point hike, the ninth in a string of increases, was hardly a cherry on the sundae. Bond traders see it as the straw that could potentially break the economic camel’s […]
A Crisis of Clarity Rippling Through Regional Banks
The past week of volatility exhibited in the banking sector was epic. It was along the lines of a redux of 2008, when some high-profile mortgage lenders and investment banks dealing in risky practices went bankrupt, filed for Chapter 11 or were acquired for pennies on the dollar. To say the recent events in the […]
Banking Crisis Will Likely Trigger a Fed Pivot
The failure of SVB Financial Group (SIVB) is epic in terms of the size of deposits lost to so many fledging companies, the payrolls it won’t be able to meet, the mismanagement of the balance sheet, the job losses it will likely trigger and the damage to investor sentiment that was evident when the 15th-largest […]
Fight Over Federal Budget Looms Large
What a difference a data point makes. Last Friday’s ISM report came in as forecast on a numerical basis, but underneath the hood revealed further stubborn inflationary pressures at work. But the market gave the benefit of the doubt to the notion that, just maybe, inflation might be starting to flatten. There is a raging […]
The Fed’s 2% Target Rate for Inflation is Not Realistic
Based on the recent string of economic data that includes January employment, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), Producer Consumption Expenditures (PCE), weekly initial jobless claims, personal spending and consumer confidence, it appears as if the domestic economy is functioning fairly well. This performance is occurring amid a backdrop of some very stubborn […]
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Offsetting Currents Leave Market in Flux as Bond Yields Rise
The investing landscape is about as mixed and garbled as one could imagine, with all the conflicting data showing a lot of fragmentation within several sectors of the economy amid tightening monetary policy, and a stock market that is demonstrating resilience against seemingly mounting odds. The bears point to an inverted yield curve, a hot […]
Traders are Betting the Fed Will Raise the Overnight Rate to 6.0%
By the time this column is emailed out to all my readers, the pivotal Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will have crossed the tape Tuesday morning. It will either confirm the fears in the bond market that inflation is sticky or provide a basis for buyers to resume buying into growth stocks. Friday’s session was […]
Maybe No Soft or Hard Landing for Economy as Job Market Strengthens
Bond and equity markets are in a much better place than how they ended 2022, with further evidence of slowing inflation providing the bullish catalyst. Aside from what is an impressive labor market that is adding more jobs than forecast, data on manufacturing, factory orders, housing, retail and productivity are all trending lower — which […]
Market Weighs Big Debate Over Outlook for S&P Earnings
After a grand start for the stock market this month, there is so much that remains unanswered amid mixed economic data and a fourth-quarter reporting period that is drawing investors who apparently like the soft-landing narrative back to the market. This narrative has gained steam in light of China’s reopening and the sharp decline in […]
Drum Roll of Earnings Season Getting Loud This Week
The first two weeks of January were up and away for all 11 market sectors fueled by the grand reopening of China, a rally in bonds, a selloff in the dollar and crude oil catching a fresh bid. The third week of January had the market giving back most of the gains, except for Friday’s […]
